Competing Western and Chinese International Economic Orders: Implications for Unsustainable Debt in African Countries

Abstract

Many African countries are facing severe debt distress amid growing competition between the Western-dominated economic order and an emerging Chinese-led order shaped by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China’s development banks. The weakening authority of traditional multilateral institutions particularly the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and World Trade Organisation has complicated debt resolution efforts, especially as China has become a major creditor whose cooperation is increasingly essential. Drawing on existing international datasets, this study examines how these competing economic orders address the debt challenges of highly indebted African states. It finds that BRI-related lending has contributed to unsustainable debt levels in several countries, with four African states unable to meet their repayment obligations, a significant share of which is owed to Chinese lenders. Zambia is examined as a case study, illustrating how limited coordination between China and Bretton Woods institutions prolonged the debt restructuring process. The analysis highlights how tensions between rival international financial frameworks hinder effective debt resolution. The study further considers the potential emergence of alternative or hybrid governance arrangements involving actors such as BRICS, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the European Union (EU), aimed at reinforcing a rule-based international economic order. Such arrangements could improve debt management, support debt-stressed countries, and promote stable trade and capital flows. This research contributes to the literature by linking the interaction between Western and Chinese economic orders to contemporary African debt crises.